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Tropical Depression naging isang Tropical Storm na

ISSUED AT 5:00 AM, 19 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today)


Track and intensity outlook:

• Track: “PEPITO” will move west northwestward or northwestward today, then turn more westward tomorrow towards the Northern Luzon-Central Luzon area. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone is forecast to make landfall over the eastern coast of Northern Luzon-Central Luzon area tomorrow evening or Wednesday early morning. It may emerge of the West Philippine Sea on Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• Intensity: “PEPITO” developed into a tropical depression at 2:00 AM today. It will likely remain a tropical depression over the next 36 hours and may make landfall as a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm. After crossing the landmass of Luzon. “PEPITO” may further intensify over the West Philippine Sea and may reach severe tropical storm category by Friday.
Hazards affecting land:

• Rainfall: Today, light to moderate with at times heavy rains may be experienced over Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangasamoro, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao Occidental, Sultan Kudarat, South Cotabato, and Sarangani. Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.

• Winds: No tropical cyclone wind signal is currently in effect. However, the northeasterly surface windflow partly enhanced by “PEPITO” may bring strong-force to near gale-force winds with occasional gusts over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the coastal and mountainous areas of northern Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar
Hazards affecting coastal waters:

• Gale Warning is in effect over the seaboards of Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and Isabela due to rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 4.5 m) caused by the northeasterly surface windflow. Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for those using small seacrafts.

• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) due to “PEPITO” and the northeasterly surface windflow will be experienced in the next 24 hours over the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Bicol Region and the seaboards of Northern Samar and Eastern Samar. Those with small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea.

At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression “PEPITO” was estimated based on all available data at 820 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (13.1°N, 131.8°E).

Strength:Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.
Movement:Moving West Northwestward at 20 km/h.

Forecast Positions

• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 600 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (15.8°N, 127.7°E)
• 48 Hour (Wednesday morning): In the vicinity of Jones, Isabela (16.6°N, 121.9°E)
• 72 Hour (Thursday morning): 255 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (16.4°N, 118.0°E)
• 96 Hour (Friday morning): 1550 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (OUTSIDE PAR) (16.5°N, 115.2°E)
• 120 Hour (Saturday morning): 870 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.0°N, 112.2°E)


The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

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